
HTC G1 Dominating iPhone adoption rate?
How many Android powered G1’s have been pre ordered? 15? 1500? 15,000? No, no and no. Try 1.5 million. That is addition to another 2 million phones that retailers are expected to sell. 3.5 million G1’s? Wow, there is going to be a lot of ugly in people’s pockets pretty soon.
But how does this compare to the iPhone’s launch? It took Apple 74 days to sell 1 million iPhones. To move 3.5 million iPhones Apple needed until almost the end of 2007 (Ars Technica). Really, there is no comparison at all, the G1 is kicking the holy crap out the iPhone at the same stage in the game , right? Hold on there cowboy! Maybe the two situations aren’t analogous.
Recall that when the iPhone originally launched it wasn’t priced at the $179 you can get a G1 for when it becomes available. The iPhone wasn’t even priced at the $199 the current low end iPhone will set you back. Nope, the original iPhone retailed for $499 for a 4 GB version and $599 for a 8 GB version. Not a valid comparison and even Apple realized the iPhone was overpriced (on a personal note: I can’t believe I bought one…on the first day).
That doesn’t mean that a better comparison isn’t out there. What about the introduction of the iPhone 3G? Yes, yes a bunch of people already had iPhones but people still managed to line up greedy tech piglets at Steve Jobs’ teat get excited about the best phone experience possible. So excited there were still lines and sellouts. What was the adoption rate of the 3G profit grab revision? According to seeking alpha It took Apple four weeks to sell 3.5 million G3 iPhones.
Wow! So if the G1, saddled as it is by T-Mobile, is selling phones much faster than Apple then the end is in sight for the iPhone right? Maybe not. Pre sales do not always translate into sales (people sign up because they might want one and they don’t want to wait) the real world experience may be a long way from the hype. The real question is: Can the G1 maintain the momentum? The quick answer for any iPhone fan is “no way” it depends on how great the G1 is. For the G1 to keep rolling it will have to better than the iPhone right away. Otherwise all people will hear is “it’s okay but…” and that will be a pure killer in the most awesomest phone available contest.
Comments
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I thought this was unconfirmed sales.
I’m happily waiting for the G1. I Love the physical design + the visual interface of the iPhone. But ... my faith (a very strong word for an atheist) in apple feels like it’s bin through the blender a couple of times. Apple hasn’t communicated a philosophy that I subscribe to since the “Rip, Mix & Burn” campaign.
All my equipment is all apple, and I still recommend people to buy an apple before a pc. But I am not as enthusiastic as I used to be.
I feel the company needs more iWoz than iJobs in it’s core philosophy. That’s the reason I never bought the iPhone.
I know the G1 is an ugly brick, but I’m having a reflection upon MS vs IBM when the later didn’t care about the software. We’ll see if google puts breaks in the developers wheels or if TMobile can impose limitations.
It’s an ugly brick, but it might be a brick of freedom?
Ripp Mix and BURN!!! -
Uhm, the original 1.5M unsubstantiated guess came from Anders Bylund at MotleyFool. He has not responded to requests for his source. A journo from BetaNews questioned T-Mo and they would not substantiate Bylund’s guesstimate, as they said they did not respond to rumors.
The only other numbers were from Engadget. They stated that pre-orders were 60k, and that T-Mo had tripled them to 180k.
So where lies the truth? The fact is T-Mo has about 30M subscribers in the US. About 10% are smartphone users, leaving an installed base of most likely upgraders at about 3M. Believe you me, that 50% of the installed base DO NOT upgrade that quickly. They’ll be lucky to get 10% of their installed base to upgrade over the next year.
Think about it, T-Mo only has 3G in 15 cities! 15 cities. The numbers do NOT support T-Mo having 1.5M pre-orders. 1/10th of that is more likely. Anders Bylund won’t respond, and T-Mo won’t confirm. The rumors do NOT pass the sniff test.






